Almost two-thirds of Aussies could own an electric vehicle within 10 years, predicts luxury car maker Jaguar, a figure that is significantly more bullish about the uptake of EVs than other analysis.

Jaguar commissioned a survey as part of its ‘Driving Australia Forward’ report, the findings of which indicates that one in five Australians of driving age think they will buy an electric car within the next two years.

That figure jumps to almost 84 per cent of buyers who say they’d like to own an EV at some point in their lives.

This is a very optimistic outlook considering that right now EVs represent something like 0.2 per cent of total sales, and a recently survey by Roy Morgan (see table below) suggests that only 55.7 per cent of Australians are seriously considering buying some form of electrified vehicle.

Other forecasts such as Bloomberg New Energy Finance predict that 40 per cent of light vehicles will be electric by 2040, while the Australian Energy Market Operator recently doubled its forecast, predicting half of all cars would be electric by around the same time.

If Jaguar’s forecasts are correct, this means Australian car dealers could be selling an average of 1.2 million EV or PHEV cars per year over the next 10 years, around double what is anticipated by AEMO.

Who is going to buy all these electric vehicles?

According to Jaguar, the most likely buyer for an EV is a millennial male, with 43 per cent of millennial respondents saying they wanted an EV, compared to only 34 per cent of baby boomers.

Men were also more likely to want to purchase an EV as their next car, the survey found, at 42 per cent compared to 27 per cent of women. About 38 per cent of people surveyed said they wanted an EV “a lot”.

However, the cost of EVs remains a key factor, as Kevin Nicholls, marketing director at Jaguar Land Rover Australia admits.

“While Aussies clearly see the benefits of electric vehicles they’re still hesitant about the price – 75 per cent said that if electric vehicles cost the same as their petrol equivalent, it would be their next car purchase,” he says.

Australia is dragging some 10 years behind the rest of the world in electric vehicle uptake, many surveys suggest, largely because of a lack of EV policy and purchase incentives. Even when policies such as emissions standards are proposed, they are shouted down as a form of carbon tax.

In May, Jaguar called upon the Australian government to provide the local car industry with a clear path to follow to help boost the uptake of EVs.

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